In January, the Chinese government announced that the country’s birthrate plummeted for a fifth straight year in 2021, hitting a historic low that could potentially change the face of the country—and perhaps the Asian region. Experts expect that this falling birthrate, coupled with increased life expectancy of older adults, could result in a demographic crisis that could undermine its economy and even its political stability, leading to labor shortages and reducing tax revenues.

This picture is a stark contrast to 2016 when the relaxation of the one-child policy, which would allow couples to have two children, was expected to boost birth rates and grow the population. Last year, the government even opened up the door for couples to have as many as three children.

However, most Chinese millennials have decided not to have that second—or now third—child. Generations of only children have come to rely on the support of two sets of grandparents to help raise children, especially as more Chinese women have entered the workforce. Furthermore, they don’t see the point or value of siblings—a foreign concept in the country.

Diaper makers—and their suppliers—had high hopes for the relaxation of the one-child ruling and many ramped up investment in anticipation of a baby boom. As that “boom” has never happened, these manufacturers—both local and multinational companies—have had to shift their focus to not just China but to customers throughout the Asia-Pacific region. However, declining birth rates have been an issue throughout the region. Indonesia, the country with the highest population in the region, has reported its birth rate at 17 per 1000 compared to 18.5 five years ago. This has led companies in the region to find creative ways to grow sales.

In this issue, Luna Xing from the China National Household Paper Association (see page 23) reports on the activities of 11 Chinese diaper companies and how they have responded to lower birth rates. From higher value added products—targeting the growing Chinese middle class—to new sales and marketing channels to increased efforts on social media, these companies are working overtime to sell diapers.


Karen McIntyre
Editor